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An Empirical Evaluation of Policy Options for Increasing Dairy Production in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach


 
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1. Title Title of document An Empirical Evaluation of Policy Options for Increasing Dairy Production in Indonesia: A System Dynamics Approach
 
2. Creator Author's name, affiliation, country Priyono Priyono; Research Center for Behavioral and Circular Economics, Research Organization for Governance, Economy, and Community Welfare, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jl Jend Gatot Subroto Jakarta, Indonesia; Indonesia
 
2. Creator Author's name, affiliation, country R Nurmalina; Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Economics and Management, IPB University, Jl. Kamper, Kampus IPB Dramaga Bogor 16680, Indonesia
 
2. Creator Author's name, affiliation, country Burhanuddin Burhanuddin; 2Department of Agribusiness, Faculty of Economics and Management, IPB University, Jl. Kamper, Kampus IPB Dramaga Bogor 16680, Indonesia
 
2. Creator Author's name, affiliation, country N Ilham; Research Center for Behavioral and Circular Economics, Research Organization for Governance, Economy, and Community Welfare, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jl Jend Gatot Subroto Jakarta, Indonesia
 
3. Subject Discipline(s)
 
3. Subject Keyword(s) Dairy Demand; Dairy Production; Policy Analysis; Scenarios; System Dynamics
 
4. Description Abstract Domestic dairy production in Indonesia grows slower than consumption, resulting in an excess demand that imports must fulfill.  Accelerating dairy production can no longer be solved partially; a holistic system approach is required.  This study aims to empirically evaluate the policy options for accelerating dairy production in Indonesia.  The data used in this study were secondary data from Badan Pusat Statistik, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Trade, the Ministry of Industry, the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Cooperatives and SMEs, Bank Indonesia, and FAO.  A system dynamics approach was used to construct the model and describe the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts based on policy scenario options.  The empirical results showed that the calf rearing program policy, increased female dairy cattle imports, higher conception rates, and import tariffs all positively impacted the share of domestic dairy production to dairy demand.  On the other hand, a policy of increasing dairy consumption, if not accompanied by an increase in domestic dairy production, harms the domestic dairy production share.  Except for the policy of increasing dairy consumption, all policy scenarios increased the long-term share of domestic dairy production more than the short- and medium-term.  It is concluded that an optimistic policy through calf rearing, increased import of female cows, conception rate, and maintaining import tariffs was the best policy with the highest impact on increasing the share of domestic dairy production compared to pessimistic and moderate policies.
 
5. Publisher Organizing agency, location APPERTANI
 
6. Contributor Sponsor(s)
 
7. Date (YYYY-MM-DD) 2023-08-09
 
8. Type Status & genre Peer-reviewed Article
 
8. Type Type
 
9. Format File format PDF
 
10. Identifier Uniform Resource Identifier https://medpub.appertani.org/index.php/jitv/article/view/3281
 
10. Identifier Digital Object Identifier https://doi.org/10.14334/jitv.v28i3.3281
 
11. Source Title; vol., no. (year) Jurnal Ilmu Ternak dan Veteriner; Vol 28, No 3 (2023): September 2023
 
12. Language English=en en
 
13. Relation Supp. Files
 
14. Coverage Geo-spatial location, chronological period, research sample (gender, age, etc.)
 
15. Rights Copyright and permissions Copyright (c) 2023 Jurnal Ilmu Ternak dan Veteriner